Bitcoin's Bullish Futures and Whale Activity Hint at Sustained Rally

The Bitcoin futures market re-ignited its upward trajectory after a pullback from a peak of over AU$111,900 (US$73,000) to the AU$91,650 (US$60,000) region. This temporary falter was mirrored by a reduction in open interest to AU$48.37 billion (US$31.58 billion) on March 20. Yet, current trends indicate a resurgence in open interest, now topping AU$53.64 billion (US$35 billion), suggesting revitalised faith in Bitcoin's rally.

The ETF sector, after a period of lacklustre performance, has seen a renewed influx of investment, with a daily net inflow of AU$640.58 million (US$417.98 million) as of March 26. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC have emerged as frontrunners, closely followed by products from Ark Invest and 21Shares.

Should the ETF sector's robust engagement persist, especially with Bitcoin halving on the horizon, there's potential to fuel a breakout towards the AU$122,610 (US$80,000) target.

Analysing Bitcoin’s Technical Position

Bitcoin's technical analysis suggests a stronghold above critical bullish benchmarks: the 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 200-day EMA, which appear as blue, red, and purple lines on the four-hour chart.

For confidence in the uptrend's sustainability, investors are watching for consecutive four-hour candle closes above AU$107,230 (US$69,996), aligning with the previous day’s open. Conversely, a close below this threshold could deter the bullish momentum, potentially initiating a retest of lower support zones, as indicated by the aforementioned EMAs.

Ultimately, as it has been so far throughout 2024, the ETFs are driving the action. After experiencing net outflows amounting to AU$1.35 billion (US$887.6 million), which had prompted a market downturn last week, the tide turned favourably. The continuous outflow trend was interrupted with AU$23.52 million (US$15.4 million) of net inflows observed on Monday, renewing investor confidence.

Ethereum (ETH), alongside Bitcoin, has demonstrated commendable gains over the week, rising by 8.7%. This uptick comes amid reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the Ethereum Foundation, showcasing the resilience of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap despite potential regulatory challenges.

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